Picturing the behaviour of actors in forest development and wood supply models

Timber is a potentially raw material for the bioeconomy. However, several factors will determine how much forest-based lignocellulose will be available for future material utilisation. Silvicultural activities and market behaviour of forest owners are likely to have a considerable impact on market availability of such lignocellulose.

The existing timber-supply forecast models can still be seen primarily as management guideline-scenarios.

This results in relevant differences between the forecasted and real harvesting intensities. From the point of view of the raw-timber processing industries and in the context of bioeconomy however, only the knowledge about timber quantities which gain marketability is relevant. Business as Usual (BAU) Scenarios are suited to provide this type of information.

It was shown that harvesting decisions can be predicted using the attributes standing volume, harvesting conditions, stand type and type of ownership. Moreover, results of the project provided a deeper understanding of the influence of individual parameters and contributed to a better understanding of projections in that field.

The qualitative study was used to derive a decision model which is suited to explain the harvesting behaviour in small and medium sized private forest estates. Most relevant actor is the owner, who makes decisions about forest management activities. It became evident that decisions are the result of an interplay of needs, desires, wishes, hindrances and external factors. Initially, decisions showed more general characteristics, which were then consecutively transferred into concrete decisions on stand levels.