Lignocellulose: Land use, potential and market effects
The aim of this project is to build scenarios for using lignocellulose biomass in future production of materials. These scenarios are affected by the potential of agricultural land for producing lignocellulose, and therefore the project takes into account agricultural markets and land use within the scenarios. On the other hand, the availability of lignocellulose biomass depends on competing uses such as energy. Hence it is essential to analyze the potential and indirect effects of lignocellulose biomass supply from the agricultural sector model with regards to the global energy system model.
This goal can be accomplished with further development of European Simulation Model (ESIM), which is a global partial equilibrium model in agriculture with a focus on the European Union. In this model, lignocellulose biomass production on agricultural land (e.g. short rotation coppice (SRC), Miscantus) can be incorporated to depict land use competition with other biomass. This kind of integration has not been implemented in existing global agricultural sector models (IMPACT, CAPRI, AGLINK-COSIMO, AGMEOD, ESIM).
In the Competence Network Modeling the Bioeconomy, the model interface will be developed to create bioeconomy scenarios. The integration uses the energy model TIMES PanEU, a Baden-Württemberg farm model (EFEM), and the material flow model CarboMog from KIT.
This project will contribute information regarding the quantity and price level of biomass that can be supplied in the future. Our results are important information for private companies who intend to access lignocellulose for the material use in the future, policy makers who advise about future support of Bioeconomy and scientists who are interested in the economic prospects of new technological methods. Furthermore, the project will also show how the effects of growing lignocellulose biomass demand will influence agricultural markets and global biomass balances, and thus how price changes will affect the agricultural landscape.
| Project title | Lignocellulose: Land use, potential and market effects |
| Institution | University of Hohenheim, Institute of Agricultural Policy and Markets |
| Research group | Prof. Dr. Harald Grethe, Dr. Hyung-Sik Choi |